{"id":31435,"date":"2026-10-16T22:52:57","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T22:52:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pettysackingforum.com\/?p=31435"},"modified":"2026-10-16T22:52:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T22:52:57","slug":"bitcoin-has-found-support-but-not-a-breakout-analysts-explain-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pettysackingforum.com\/?p=31435","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin has found support, but not a breakout: Analysts explain why"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Bitcoin BTC has struggled to break decisively higher in October, holding in the low-$80,000s despite repeated tests of support and a recovery in prices during the third quarter.<\/p>\n

The cryptocurrency was trading near $83,400 on October 14, after briefly falling toward $81,000 earlier in the week. <\/p>\n

It has also faced resistance around the mid-$80,000s<\/a>, leaving the market without a sustained move higher.<\/p>\n

The broader market backdrop remains volatile<\/h2>\n

The S&P 500 ended October 13 at 7,805.45, just below the record high it set the previous week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.35%<\/a> and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.15%.<\/p>\n

The modest moves in the major indexes masked sharper swings among individual stocks as investors assessed corporate earnings and the outlook for interest rates.<\/p>\n

Treasury yields have eased in recent sessions but remain elevated. <\/p>\n

The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at about 5.2% ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report, after recently reaching a 24-year high. <\/p>\n

Brent crude was trading above $106 a barrel on Wednesday, while US West Texas Intermediate crude remained below $100, as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about potential supply disruptions.<\/p>\n

Yves Renno, head of trading at Wirex, identified these macroeconomic pressures as a key reason Bitcoin has struggled to break above $86,000. <\/p>\n

He pointed to energy-driven inflation and rising government bond yields, which can compete with cryptocurrencies for investors\u2019 capital and weigh on return expectations.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe main reason behind the failure to surpass $86,000 is macro pressure: inflation driven by energy prices (Brent is near $106) and 10-year government yields rising at their fastest pace since 2022,\u201d Renno said. <\/p>\n

\u201cHigher yields naturally compete with crypto for investors\u2019 money and weigh on return expectations,\u201d he told Invezz<\/em><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin\u2019s price stability has not yet translated into a convincing breakout. <\/p>\n

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows, which strengthened in late September, have also become more inconsistent in October. <\/p>\n

Analysts point to selective buying, subdued trading activity and the need for renewed ETF demand as factors that could influence whether Bitcoin moves decisively beyond its current range.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin finds support but lacks momentum<\/h2>\n

The lack of a breakout comes as activity in the crypto market has slowed from September’s pace. <\/p>\n

Average daily spot and futures trading volumes during the first five days of October were running 12% and 19% below their respective September averages, according to Martin Gaspar of FalconX. <\/p>\n

Bitcoin has held up, but the decline in trading activity raises questions about the strength of demand behind its price recovery.<\/p>\n

The gap between price performance and trading activity is important to the current market setup. <\/p>\n

Bitcoin has managed to hold its ground, but lower volumes suggest the recovery has not been accompanied by a sustained increase in trading activity. <\/p>\n

Gaspar told Invezz<\/em><\/strong> that Bitcoin had tested $81,000 twice in a week but had struggled to break decisively higher, pointing to consolidation and some lack of conviction rather than outright weakness.<\/p>\n

Bernardo Brites, CEO of Trace Finance, also sees a difference between investors willing to hold Bitcoin and those prepared to buy at higher prices.<\/p>\n

“There are buyers underneath this market. They just aren’t paying up,” Brites said.<\/p>\n

Brites said Bitcoin’s earlier decline had already shaken out many forced sellers, helping it remain in the low-$80,000s even during a period of ETF outflows. <\/p>\n

But he argued that a sustained move higher requires a fresh source of demand, particularly because spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have been a major source of new buying since August, have shown signs of slowing down.<\/p>\n

He also pointed to limited growth in stablecoin supply as a constraint on the availability of additional buying power. <\/p>\n

Without stronger demand from ETFs or another source of capital entering the crypto market, Brites said, Bitcoin could continue to consolidate rather than establish a new upward trend.<\/p>\n

Bill Zielke, chief revenue officer at BitPay, similarly described the current price action as consolidation with signs of underlying strength. <\/p>\n

Bitcoin accounts for 70% of crypto purchases in BitPay’s wallet app, he said, but broader buying confidence would be needed to support a stronger move.<\/p>\n

“Buyers still appear selective,” Zielke told Invezz<\/strong><\/em>. “They’re willing to step in on pullbacks while remaining cautious about chasing prices higher.”<\/p>\n

Chris Kline, chief operating officer and co-founder of BitcoinIRA, said Bitcoin’s ability to absorb selling pressure without a sharp decline reflects a change in how the asset behaves during periods of uncertainty.<\/p>\n

“A few years ago, broader market uncertainty could send Bitcoin into a tailspin,” Kline told Invezz<\/strong><\/em>. <\/p>\n

“Today, we’re seeing an asset that can absorb selling pressure without falling apart.”<\/p>\n

For Kline, that resilience does not necessarily mean a breakout is imminent. <\/p>\n

“The floor is getting tested. The ceiling is still waiting for a catalyst,” he added.<\/p>\n

The analysts’ views converge on a market in which buyers have not disappeared, but the strength of demand remains uncertain. <\/p>\n

Bitcoin’s ability to hold near support is one part of the picture; a sustained recovery in volume and fresh buying would offer clearer evidence that the market is ready to move higher.<\/p>\n

ETF flows weaken after late-September buying streak<\/h2>\n

The shift in spot Bitcoin ETF flows provides another measure of how buying momentum has changed. <\/p>\n

The funds recorded sustained net inflows in the second half of September, but October’s daily figures show a more uneven pattern.<\/p>\n

From September 17 through September 29, US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered approximately $3.08 billion in cumulative net inflows across nine consecutive trading sessions. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Date<\/th>\nNet Flows<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
September 17, 2026<\/td>\n+$159.5 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
September 18, 2026<\/td>\n+$433.0 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
September 21, 2026<\/td>\n+$999.0 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
September 22, 2026<\/td>\n+$714.7 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
September 23, 2026<\/td>\n+$346.9 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
September 24, 2026<\/td>\n+$190.7 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
September 25, 2026<\/td>\n+$134.5 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
September 28, 2026<\/td>\n+$31.0 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
September 29, 2026<\/td>\n+$66.2 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
September 30, 2026<\/td>\n\u2212$148.7 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 1, 2026<\/td>\n+$102.7 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 2, 2026<\/td>\n+$189.9 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 5, 2026<\/td>\n\u2212$89.8 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 6, 2026<\/td>\n+$118.8 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 7, 2026<\/td>\n\u2212$484.9 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 8, 2026<\/td>\n\u2212$244.1 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 9, 2026<\/td>\n+$21.1 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 12, 2026<\/td>\n\u2212$65.4 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
October 13, 2026<\/td>\n+$175.7 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>
Daily US spot Bitcoin ETF flow data. Figures are net flows in US dollars, converted to millions. Data through October 13, 2026.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Daily totals were positive throughout that stretch, including nearly $1 billion on September 21 and $714.7 million on September 22. <\/p>\n

The run ended on September 30, when the funds recorded $148.7 million in net outflows.<\/p>\n

October began with inflows of $102.7 million on October 1 and $189.9 million on October 2. <\/p>\n

But the trend reversed sharply on October 7 and October 8<\/a>, when the funds recorded net outflows of $484.9 million and $244.1 million, respectively. <\/p>\n

After a smaller outflow on October 12, the funds attracted $175.7 million on October 13.<\/p>\n

Despite that latest positive session, cumulative net flows for October remained negative at approximately $276 million through October 13.<\/p>\n

The figures suggest that the late-September buying pace did not continue into October. <\/p>\n

But the return to positive flows on October 13 also shows that demand has not disappeared entirely.<\/p>\n

Brites described the recent withdrawals as a pause in institutional demand rather than a broader exit. <\/p>\n

He noted that nearly $730 million left US spot Bitcoin ETFs over two sessions earlier in October, but Bitcoin continued to hold in the low-$80,000s.<\/p>\n

“I’d read it as a pause, not an exit,” Brites told Invezz<\/strong><\/em>.<\/p>\n

He also argued that some of September’s buying reflected short-term trading activity rather than longer-term allocations. <\/p>\n

That distinction could matter if fast-moving investors reduce their positions while other sources of demand remain subdued.<\/p>\n

Kline cautioned against reading too much into individual days of ETF activity. <\/p>\n

Institutional investors adjust purchases according to liquidity and market conditions, he said, meaning their buying patterns do not necessarily follow a consistent daily schedule.<\/p>\n

“I wouldn’t confuse slower ETF inflows with the end of institutional interest,” Kline said.<\/p>\n

The distinction is between continued institutional participation and the pace of fresh buying. <\/p>\n

ETF demand has been an important source of support, but the recent figures show that the strong inflow streak has given way to a less consistent pattern. <\/p>\n

Whether those funds return to sustained net inflows could help determine whether Bitcoin can move beyond its current trading range.<\/p>\n

Can Bitcoin still deliver an Uptober?<\/h2>\n

October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, but the seasonal trend has not prevented periods of weakness.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin rose in 10 of the 13 Octobers from 2013 through 2025. <\/p>\n

As per CoinGlass, across all 13 Octobers, the average return is 18.52%, and the median return is 12.73%.<\/p>\n

The sample is limited, and October 2025 ended lower despite a six-year run of positive returns.<\/p>\n

Gaspar said the fourth quarter generally has positive seasonality for Bitcoin, particularly October. <\/p>\n

But he cautioned that the seasonal pattern is not itself a catalyst. <\/p>\n

With early-October crypto activity slowing, oil prices elevated and few immediate catalysts in view, he said the month faces headwinds.<\/p>\n

Zielke similarly said Bitcoin’s weak start has fallen short of expectations associated with Uptober, but there is still time for the pattern to change. <\/p>\n

He pointed to the strong advances in August and September and said a stronger finish would require renewed excitement alongside a more favorable economic backdrop.<\/p>\n

Brites argued that seasonal performance has become less relevant as Bitcoin’s market structure changes.<\/p>\n

“Today Bitcoin trades more on ETF flows, rates and the dollar, and none of those follow the calendar,” he said.<\/p>\n

He identified the Federal Reserve’s October 27-28 meeting as a potential catalyst for the remainder of the month. <\/p>\n

The meeting could influence market expectations for interest rates, an important consideration given the elevated Treasury yields and uncertainty around inflation.<\/p>\n

Kline said traders should not treat October’s historical reputation as an investment strategy.<\/p>\n

“I’ve always thought ‘Uptober’ was a fun nickname and an odd investment strategy. Markets don’t owe us a rally because the calendar flips to October,” he said.<\/p>\n

For now, Bitcoin remains caught between evidence of underlying support and a lack of sustained buying momentum. <\/p>\n

Its recent ability to recover from tests of the low-$80,000s has not been accompanied by a decisive breakout, while ETF flows have turned negative for the month despite a positive session on October 13.<\/p>\n

A recovery in inflows and trading activity could give Bitcoin a stronger basis for moving higher. <\/p>\n

Until then, the seasonal case for an October rally remains secondary to the market’s ability to attract fresh demand.<\/p>\n

The post Bitcoin has found support, but not a breakout: Analysts explain why<\/a> appeared first on Invezz<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin BTC has struggled to break decisively higher in October, holding in the low-$80,000s despite repeated tests of support and a recovery in prices during the third quarter. The cryptocurrency was trading near $83,400 on October 14, after briefly falling toward $81,000 earlier in the week. It has also faced resistance around the mid-$80,000s, leaving […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31436,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[72],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31435","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pettysackingforum.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31435","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pettysackingforum.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pettysackingforum.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pettysackingforum.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pettysackingforum.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31435"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/pettysackingforum.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31435\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pettysackingforum.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/31436"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pettysackingforum.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31435"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pettysackingforum.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31435"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pettysackingforum.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31435"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}